There aren’t any simple decisions for the U.S. on this scenario.
If Pelosi had canceled the go to, she would have been overruling the needs of Taiwan’s leaders. A go to, stated my colleague Amy Qin, who is predicated in Taiwan, “boosts Taiwan’s legitimacy on the international stage.”
As Edward Wong, a Times correspondent who covers diplomacy from Washington, stated, “Supporters of the trip argue that it’s the U.S. sending a message to Beijing that Taiwan is important enough to us that we are going to engage at senior levels.” He described the journey as a model of “diplomatic deterrence,” making an attempt to remind China of the potential penalties if it did invade Taiwan.
A cancellation, against this, would have risked sending the message that China can dictate American relations with Taiwan. It would have the potential to repeat the errors that the U.S. made with Putin over the previous 20 years, when it repeatedly tried to appease him.
Putin invaded Georgia, annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula, murdered Russian dissidents and intervened within the U.S. presidential election in 2016. Each time, the U.S. averted main confrontation, partly out of a fear that it may spark a bigger struggle. Putin, viewing the U.S. and Western Europe as weak, responded final yr with a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
If China believes the U.S. received’t in the end come to Taiwan’s protection, the probabilities of an invasion could enhance.
But the dangers of a confrontational method are additionally actual. Pelosi’s go to, for instance, could lead Chinese airplanes to close Taiwan in new methods. “If they enter into Taiwan’s territorial airspace, an incident could happen, whether Xi wants one or not,” Bonnie Glaser, the director of the Asia Program on the German Marshall Fund of the U.S., informed The Times.