A Russian Pledge of No Invasion? Ukrainians Are Skeptical.

KYIV, Ukraine — It appeared like a reassuring pronouncement: Russia’s deputy overseas minister, Sergei A. Ryabkov, declaring after negotiations with the United States that “we have no intention to invade Ukraine.”

But skepticism ran deep on Tuesday inside Ukraine, the place politicians had been fast to low cost the pledge Mr. Ryabkov made on Monday after assembly with American negotiators on Eastern European safety.

“When Russians say, ‘No, no, no, we don’t want to invade Ukraine’ what they mean is, ‘Yes, yes, yes, we do want to invade Ukraine,’” mentioned Oksana Syroid, a former deputy speaker of Parliament.

Oleksandr Danylyuk, a former Ukrainian nationwide safety adviser, additionally discounted Mr. Ryabkov’s promise. “It’s not so important what they say now,” Mr. Danylyuk mentioned. “What I don’t want to happen is, after some time, the Russians saying, ‘we didn’t intend to invade, but….’”

“They can always put a comma after it and say, ‘but,’” he added. “The Kremlin is very good at this.”

There had been not less than some constructive indicators for Ukraine to return out of Monday’s high-stakes negotiations in Geneva, analysts mentioned. Russia referred to as the talks “deep” and “concrete” and dedicated to proceed negotiations this week — with NATO on Wednesday and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe on Thursday. The O.S.C.E. talks will embrace Russia and Ukraine, the primary high-level, publicly introduced assembly not too long ago that can embrace each nations.

Mr. Ryabkov mentioned that the result of these discussions would decide whether or not Russia was keen to proceed with diplomacy.

Ukraine’s overseas minister, Dmytro Kuleba, additionally provided a constructive evaluation of the Geneva talks, from Ukraine’s standpoint, telling native media that they had proven Russia that the United States wouldn’t negotiate on European safety ensures till after Moscow withdrew forces from the Ukrainian border.

“Regardless how often Russian diplomats circle around these issues, the starting point for discussing security guarantees in the European space should begin with Russia de-escalating the situation along Ukraine’s border,” Mr. Kuleba mentioned.

Russia laid out sweeping calls for final month that sought to roll again NATO’s navy presence in Eastern Europe to Nineties ranges and requested for ensures the alliance wouldn’t increase eastward or maintain forces or weapons in former Soviet states. At the identical time, it has massed about 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s border and delivered threatening rhetoric that has put the West on edge, fearing an invasion.

While providing the peace of mind that Moscow didn’t intend to invade Ukraine, Mr. Ryabkov additionally mentioned that if Western nations didn’t comply with Russia’s calls for on NATO it could put “the security of the whole European continent” in danger. He didn’t specify what that meant.

Ms. Syroid, who’s the chief of the Self Reliance celebration that’s based mostly in Western Ukraine, mentioned she had little doubt Russia needed to regain management over Ukraine. But she added that the navy buildup and Russian commentary that has toggled between ominous and extra conciliatory might not be a prelude to a wider conflict as a lot as leverage to extract political concessions from rattled Western governments and Ukraine.

Mr. Danylyuk, the previous nationwide safety adviser, mentioned the broader image remained ominous for Ukraine. The Geneva talks left each side primarily the place they began, solely with the opposing, and seemingly intractable, positions now laid out extra formally. Mr. Ryabkov mentioned Ukraine should “never, never, ever” grow to be a member of NATO; the U.S. responded by saying it could by no means make such a dedication.

“What it means for Ukraine, what is important, is these positions are voiced and they are clearly irreconcilable,” Mr. Danylyuk mentioned. “Obviously, we watch the developments quite closely.”

By Tuesday, some Ukrainian analysts had been drawing conclusions that Russia would finish the week of talks with no concessions. NV, a political information website, referred to as the talks in a headline “Russia’s Foreign Policy Fraud.”

But two bulletins on Tuesday by Russia and Belarus of navy patrols and workouts close to Ukraine’s borders prompt the dangers of failure.

Russian and Belarusian jet fighters carried out joint flights close to Ukraine, the Belarusian navy mentioned. And Russia’s western navy district introduced a live-fire train with 3,000 troopers and 300 armored autos that included techniques for maneuvering by way of territory whereas below assault.

Preparing for the chance that the talks will break down, Ukraine has been pursuing a parallel monitor of diplomacy with Russia extra narrowly centered on resolving the eight-year-old battle in japanese Ukraine. The workplace of Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, issued an announcement Tuesday associated to this effort, after assembly the day earlier than with envoys from France and Germany.

Kyiv was getting ready for a four-way summit involving Ukraine, France, Germany and Russia below a long-running negotiating format referred to as the Normandy Four, the assertion mentioned. President Emmanuel Macron of France voiced help final week for such a gathering.

The proposed European summit can also be a plank in a diplomatic initiative Ukraine started quietly final month to barter with the Russian authorities on a separate channel from the talks underway this week in Europe.

“It is time to agree in a substantive manner for ending the conflict, and we are ready for the necessary decisions during the new summit of the leaders of the four countries,” Mr. Zelensky mentioned in his assertion Tuesday.

Misdirection has traditionally been pivotal to Russian navy doctrine, which locations emphasis on denial, deception and propaganda meant to gradual the opposing aspect’s responses. The annexation of Crimea in 2014, for instance, started with the looks of masked and mysterious males in unmarked uniforms, the so-called Russian inexperienced males. Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, later admitted they had been Russian troopers.

When in addition they appeared in japanese Ukraine later that 12 months, one of the leaders of the Russian-backed separatists, Aleksandr V. Zakharchenko, mentioned between 3,000 and 4,000 Russian troopers had deployed, however all whereas on their holidays. “There are active soldiers fighting among us who preferred to spend their vacation not on the beach but among their brothers, who are fighting for freedom,” he mentioned.

That evoked a Soviet ruse from 1983, when troopers in an antiaircraft unit had been deployed to Syria below the guise of vacationers, having been requested first by their commanders to develop out their hair to make the disguise extra believable.

In reality, almost each Russian and Soviet deployment over the previous half century — from the Prague Spring to Afghanistan, Chechnya and Ukraine — opened with a easy however efficient trick: troopers showing first in mufti or unmarked uniforms amid official denials from Moscow of navy motion.