As the global inhabitants has expanded over time, modernizing agriculture with assistance from improvements like AI has been humanity’s prevailing method to staving off famine.
Quite a lot of mechanical and chemical improvements delivered throughout the Fifties and Sixties represented the third agricultural revolution. The adoption of pesticides, fertilizers and high-yield crop breeds, amongst different measures, remodeled agriculture and ensured a safe food provide for a lot of tens of millions of individuals over a number of many years.
Concurrently, trendy agriculture has emerged as a wrongdoer of global warming, chargeable for one-third of greenhouse fuel emissions, specifically carbon dioxide and methane.
Meanwhile, inflation on the value of food is reaching an all-time excessive, whereas malnutrition is rising dramatically. Today, an estimated two billion individuals are stricken by food insecurity (the place accessing protected, enough and nutrient-rich food isn’t assured). Some 690 million persons are undernourished.
The third agricultural revolution could have run its course. And as we seek for innovation to usher in a fourth revolution in agriculture with urgency, all eyes are on synthetic intelligence (AI). AI, which has superior quickly over the previous 20 years, encompasses a broad vary of applied sciences able to performing human-like cognitive processes, comparable to reasoning. It’s educated to make these selections primarily based on data from huge quantities of information.
Using AI in agriculture
In aiding people in fields and factories, AI could course of, synthesize and analyze giant quantities of information steadily and ceaselessly. It can outperform people in detecting and diagnosing anomalies, comparable to plant illnesses, and making predictions together with about yield and climate.
Across a number of agricultural duties, AI could relieve growers from labor solely, automating tilling (getting ready the soil), planting, fertilizing, monitoring and harvesting.
Algorithms already regulate drip-irrigation grids, command fleets of topsoil-monitoring robots, and supervise weed-detecting rovers, self-driving tractors and mix harvesters. A fascination with the prospects of AI creates incentives to delegate it with additional company and autonomy.
This know-how is hailed as the way in which to revolutionise agriculture. The World Economic Forum, a world nonprofit selling public-private partnerships, has set AI and AI-powered agricultural robots (known as “agbots”) on the forefront of the fourth agricultural revolution.
Agricultural AI could rework the way in which farmers work. Source: Hryshchyshen Serhii/Shutterstock
But in deploying AI swiftly and broadly, we could improve agricultural productiveness on the expense of security. In our latest paper revealed in Nature Machine Intelligence, we have now thought-about the risks that could include rolling out these superior and autonomous applied sciences in agriculture.
From hackers to accidents
First, given these applied sciences are related to the web, criminals could attempt to hack them.
Disrupting sure sorts of agbots would trigger hefty damages. In the US alone, soil erosion prices US$44 billion (£33.6 billion) yearly. This has been a rising driver of the demand for precision agriculture, together with swarm robotics, that may assist farms to handle and reduce its results. But these swarms of topsoil-monitoring robots depend on interconnected pc networks and therefore are susceptible to cyber-sabotage and shutdown.
Similarly, tampering with weed-detecting rovers would let weeds unfastened at a appreciable price. We may also see interference with sprayers, autonomous drones or robotic harvesters, any of which could cripple cropping operations.
Beyond the farm gate, with rising digitization and automation, complete agrifood provide chains are prone to malicious cyberattacks. At least 40 malware and ransomware assaults concentrating on food producers, processors and packagers had been registered in the US in 2021. The most notable was the US$11 million ransomware assault in opposition to the world’s largest meatpacker, JBS.
Then there are unintentional risks. Before a rover is distributed into the sector, it’s instructed by its human operator to sense sure parameters and detect specific anomalies, comparable to plant pests. It disregards, whether or not by its personal mechanical limitations or by command, all different elements.
The similar applies to wi-fi sensor networks deployed in farms, designed to note and act on specific parameters, for instance, soil nitrogen content material. By imprudent design, these autonomous methods would possibly prioritize short-term crop productiveness over long-term ecological integrity. To improve yields, they may apply extreme herbicides, pesticides and fertilizers to fields, which could have dangerous results on soil and waterways.
Rovers and sensor networks can also malfunction, as machines sometimes do, sending instructions primarily based on inaccurate information to sprayers and agrochemical dispensers. And there’s the likelihood we could see human error in programming the machines.

There are risks related to utilizing AI to develop our food. Source: rsimona/Shutterstock
Safety over pace
Agriculture is simply too important a site for us to permit hasty deployment of potent but insufficiently supervised and infrequently experimental applied sciences. If we do, the end result could also be that they intensify harvests but undermine ecosystems. As we emphasize in our paper, the best technique to deal with risks is prediction and prevention.
We must be cautious in how we design AI to be used in agriculture and may contain specialists from totally different fields in the method. For instance, utilized ecologists could advise on attainable unintended environmental penalties of agricultural AI, comparable to nutrient exhaustion of topsoil, or extreme use of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers.
Also, {hardware} and software program prototypes must be rigorously examined in supervised environments (known as “digital sandboxes”) earlier than they’re deployed extra broadly. In these areas, moral hackers, also referred to as white hackers, could search for vulnerabilities in security and safety.
This precautionary method could barely decelerate the diffusion of AI. Yet it ought to be sure that these machines that graduate the sandbox are sufficiently delicate, protected and safe. Half a billion farms, global food safety, and a fourth agricultural revolution dangle in the stability.
This article was written by
, Research Affiliate on the Centre for the Study of Existential Risks, University of Cambridge. And was initially revealed on The Conversation