In a report launched in February 2023, the finance ministry acknowledged {that a} return of El Nino circumstances within the Pacific might be a sign of a weaker monsoon in India. However, an evaluation of the identical knowledge factors in direction of a withering affiliation between the monsoon and foodgrain production, in accordance with a report printed in Financial Express (FE).
The improvement of dependable irrigation infrastructure has led to a discount within the affect of rainfall on crop production. Additionally, local weather resilient forms of crops are being credited for the minimal affect of the monsoon on agricultural output, the report stated.
The knowledge associated to monsoon and crop production for the last decade recommend that regardless of uneven monsoon rains over time, Indian agricultural output has remained largely resistant to rainfall patterns.
In 2014, when the rains had been down 12 per cent in comparison with the conventional benchmark, meals grain production in 2014-15 crop 12 months (July-June) declined solely 5 per cent, when in comparison with the earlier crop 12 months, the report added.
The knowledge for 2018 suggests the same phenomenon. Rainfall was down 9 per cent, however the production of rice, wheat, and pulses didn’t fall within the 2018–19 crop 12 months in comparison with the earlier 12 months.
The report quoted CSC Sekhar, professor, Institute of Economic Growth, University of Delhi, as saying, “Deficient monsoon rains largely don’t affect Rabi or winter crops like wheat, pulses, and oilseeds as these crops largely have irrigation facilities.”