Over Half of Europe Could Be Infected With Coronavirus Soon, W.H.O. Says

LONDON — More than half of individuals in Europe may very well be contaminated with the Omicron variant of the coronavirus within the subsequent six to eight weeks, the World Health Organization warned on Tuesday, amid “a new west-to-east tidal wave sweeping across the region.”

“The region saw over seven million cases of Covid-19 in the first week of 2022, more than doubling over a two-week period,” Hans Kluge, the company’s regional director for Europe, stated at a information convention.

While coronavirus vaccines stay remarkably efficient at stopping extreme sickness and demise, the company cautioned in opposition to treating the virus just like the seasonal flu, since a lot stays unknown — significantly concerning the severity of the illness in areas with decrease vaccination charges, comparable to Eastern Europe.

The W.H.O. has cautioned for months that booster photographs might worsen vaccine fairness all over the world, however Dr. Kluge stated on Tuesday that they might play an important function in defending essentially the most susceptible individuals from extreme illness and also needs to be used to guard well being employees and different important staff, together with lecturers.

Since Omicron was first detected in late November, it has torn throughout the planet at a tempo unseen throughout two years of the pandemic. As associates, co-workers and members of the family take a look at constructive, the fact that the virus is transferring shortly and extensively has been a defining characteristic of this wave of an infection.

But the steep rise that Mr. Kluge cited, based mostly on forecasts by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, is a stark paradigm shift. Although the institute’s fashions have often been criticized by specialists, it’s clear that the virus is spreading shortly. Even if many individuals keep away from extreme sickness, the virus guarantees to trigger societal disruption throughout the continent.

While a lot of the general public dialogue has revolved round whether or not this was the second when governments ought to shift insurance policies and restrictions to deal with the coronavirus as an endemic illness — eradicating most restrictions and permitting individuals to handle threat in a means just like the best way they do with influenza — the W.H.O. stated it was too early to name this virus endemic.

Catherine Smallwood, a W.H.O. senior emergencies officer, stated that one of the important thing elements in declaring the virus to be endemic was some sense of predictability.

“We are still ways off,” she stated. “We still have a huge amount of uncertainty.”

Dr. Kluge added that there have been just too many unknown elements, together with precisely how extreme Omicron is for unvaccinated individuals and the way excessive the chance is of an infection resulting in “long Covid” signs.

“I am also deeply concerned that as the variant moves east, we have yet to see its full impact in countries where levels of vaccination uptake are lower, and where we will see more severe disease in the unvaccinated,” he stated.

Nations within the Balkans and Eastern Europe, the place Omicron is simply beginning to unfold extensively, have a lot decrease charges of vaccination than these in Western Europe.

Despite the widespread degree of an infection, Dr. Kluge cited knowledge from Denmark suggesting how efficient vaccines stay. The hospitalization price for unvaccinated individuals within the newest wave was “sixfold higher than for those who were fully vaccinated in the week over Christmas,” he stated.

“Allow me to reiterate that the currently approved vaccines do continue to provide good protection against severe disease and death, including for Omicron,” he stated. “But because of the unprecedented scale of transmission, we are now seeing rising Covid-19 hospitalizations. It is challenging health systems and service delivery in many countries where Omicron has spread at speed and threatens to overwhelm in many more.”

He added:“For countries not yet hit with the Omicron surge, there is a closing window to act now and plan for contingencies.”

One of the central struggles of governments throughout Europe has been making an attempt to maintain faculties open, and Dr. Kluge described these efforts as important.

“Schools should be the last places to close and the first to reopen,” he stated, though he added that “the numbers of infected people are going to be so high in many places that schools in many countries are going to be unable to keep all classes open” as a result of of sickness and workers shortages.

An instance of that strain was obvious this week in France, the place 10,452 courses had been canceled on Monday, in keeping with the federal government. Prime Minister Jean Castex stated that going ahead, schoolchildren within the nation could be allowed to do self-tests as an alternative of P.C.R. checks if one of their classmates examined constructive, in an try and hold the training system functioning.

“If we were to shut down classes as soon as there is one first case, bearing in mind the explosion of Omicron, all French schools would be closed in a matter of days,” Mr. Castex informed France 2 tv.

But as nations think about shortening isolation durations for individuals who take a look at constructive to restrict the impact on important providers, Dr. Kluge stated that “any decision to shorten recommended quarantine or isolation periods should be taken in combination with negative Covid-19 tests and only when considered essential to preserve critical service continuity.”