Pent-up travel demand could lead to holiday headaches


Significantly extra individuals plan to travel in the course of the holidays this yr than in earlier years, in accordance to a brand new PWC survey — however that pent-up demand will pressure airways nonetheless making an attempt to recuperate from final yr, trade analysts warn.

Why it issues: While many airways are including flights to widespread locations, customers are doubtless to discover increased costs and restricted availability. Airlines could additionally face staffing shortages over newly issued vaccine mandates.

Stay on high of the newest market developments and financial insights with Axios Markets. Subscribe without spending a dime

By the numbers: Roughly a 3rd of the inhabitants usually travels in the course of the holidays, most to go to household and mates, earlier PWC knowledge confirmed.

  • That was true even final yr, when many vacationers took street journeys as an alternative of flying.

  • This yr, nonetheless, 52% of respondents stated they plan to travel excess of the everyday one-third. Most will travel by automobile (72%), though 57% of these with family incomes above $150,000 stated they plan to travel by air.

They’re going to spend extra getting there too.

  • Holiday travel spending is projected to improve by 69% in 2021 in contrast with 2020, per PWC.

  • Even in contrast with pre-pandemic 2019, common travel spending is about to improve 24%, to $461 from $372.

The catch: Travel demand is probably going to outstrip provide of obtainable airline seats and rental automobiles.

  • “Airlines cannot add capability quick sufficient,” stated Jonathan Kletzel, chief of PWC’s airline and travel follow.

  • Unless you e-book your journey early, “there’ll actually be no seats out there to get to your vacation spot,” he stated.

  • A scarcity of rental automobiles means you could pay the identical quantity to hire a Ford Fiesta from a rental company as you’ll to hire some man’s Maserati on a car-sharing website like Turo.

  • There’s even a scarcity of baggage.

What’s taking place: Some airways are scrambling to add extra flights and bigger planes to meet the anticipated surge.

  • United Airlines stated final week it might fly its busiest schedule because the begin of the pandemic, including December flights to cities like Las Vegas and Orlando, Florida, and ski resorts like Aspen, Colorado.

  • “We’re seeing lots of pent-up demand in our knowledge and are providing a December schedule that facilities on the 2 issues individuals need most for the vacations: heat sunshine and contemporary snow,” stated Ankit Gupta, vp of community planning and scheduling at United.

Yes, however: with greater than 3,500 every day flights, United’s December schedule remains to be at simply 91% of its home capability in contrast with pre-pandemic 2019.

  • American Airlines will announce its winter schedule quickly, however instructed Axios it is including bigger planes and extra flights to the Caribbean, Mexico and South America to meet elevated demand.

The backside line: Brian Kelly, CEO of the Points Guy travel web site, says in the event you plan to travel, do not dally.

  • Normally costs fluctuate fairly a bit, however these patterns will likely be off this yr, Kelly says. “Book early.”

  • “Use these (frequent flier) factors you’ve been hoarding,” he provides. “It’s simpler to get refunds in the event you e-book with factors.”

Like this text? Get extra from Axios and subscribe to Axios Markets without spending a dime.