Putin Declares a Nuclear Alert, and Biden Seeks De-escalation

WASHINGTON — When Vladimir V. Putin declared Sunday that he was placing his nuclear forces into “special combat readiness” — a heightened alert standing paying homage to among the most harmful moments of the Cold War — President Biden and his aides had a selection.

They might match the transfer and put American forces on Defcon 3 — recognized to moviegoers as that second when the Air Force rolls out bombers, and nuclear silos and submarines are placed on excessive alert. Or the president might largely ignore it, sending out aides to painting Mr. Putin as as soon as once more manufacturing a menace, threatening Armageddon for a warfare he began with out provocation.

For now, no less than, Mr. Biden selected to de-escalate. The American ambassador to the United Nations reminded the Security Council on Sunday afternoon that Russia was “under no threat” and chided Mr. Putin for “another escalatory and unnecessary step that threatens us all.” The White House made it clear that America’s personal alert standing had not modified.

But to many within the administration, who spoke on Sunday on the situation of anonymity, it was a stark reminder of how shortly the Ukraine disaster might spin into a direct superpower confrontation — and the way it could but achieve this, as Mr. Putin checks how far he can go and threatens to make use of the last word weapon to get there.

And his outburst highlighted anew the query, coursing by the American intelligence neighborhood, in regards to the way of thinking of the Russian chief, a man beforehand described as pragmatic, calculating and crafty. The former director of nationwide intelligence, James R. Clapper Jr., stated in public in the present day what some officers have been saying in non-public for the reason that Russian chief started accusing Ukraine of genocide and claiming it was growing nuclear weapons of its personal.

“I personally think he’s unhinged,’’ Mr. Clapper said on CNN. “I worry about his acuity and balance.”

Others surprise if Mr. Putin needs to create that impression, so as to add to Washington’s unease. Similar issues drove the choice to not have Mr. Biden, in Delaware for the weekend, reply to Mr. Putin’s threats. It was the second time in a week that Mr. Putin has reminded the world, and Washington, that he has a large arsenal and could be tempted to make use of it. But what made the most recent nuclear outburst notable was that it was staged for tv, as Mr. Putin advised his generals that he was performing due to the West’s “aggressive comments” about Ukraine. Russia’s most senior navy officer, Valery Gerasimov, sat stone-faced as Mr. Putin issued his directive, leaving some questioning what he was considering, and how he would possibly reply.

“It was bizarre,’’ said Graham T. Allison of Harvard University, whose study of the Kennedy Administration’s handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis, “Essence of Decision,’’ has been read by generations of international relations students — and many of the national security staff surrounding Mr. Biden today. Mr. Putin’s citation of “aggressive comments” as a justification for placing one of many world’s largest nuclear arsenals on alert standing appeared each disproportionate and puzzling, he stated. “It makes no sense.”

Professor Allison, who labored on the mission to decommission 1000’s of nuclear weapons that after belonged to the Soviet Union, which centered on Ukraine, stated the incident is “adding to the worry that Putin’s grasp on reality may be loosening.”

Now the query is how General Gerasimov will translate Mr. Putin’s vaguely worded order for “special combat readiness” into motion. The reply ought to be clear within the subsequent day or two.

An enormous nuclear-detection equipment run by the United States and its allies screens Russia’s nuclear forces always, and specialists stated they’d not be shocked to see Russian bombers taken out of their hangars and loaded with nuclear weapons, or submarines filled with nuclear weapons go away port and head out to sea.

Both Russia and the U.S. conduct drills that replicate numerous ranges of nuclear alert standing, so the choreography of such strikes is properly understood by either side. A deviation from common apply would virtually definitely be noticeable.

The ground-based nuclear forces — the intercontinental ballistic missiles saved in silos by each nations — are at all times in a state of readiness, a keystone to the technique of “mutually assured destruction” that helped keep away from nuclear exchanges at even probably the most tense moments of the Cold War.

Whatever one thinks of Mr. Putin’s judgment, the choice to place the forces on alert within the midst of extraordinary tensions over the invasion of Ukraine was extremely uncommon. It got here solely a few days after he warned the United States and different NATO powers to remain out of the battle, including that “the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.”

It has put an finish, no less than for now, to the discussions between Russia and the United States about what they do in 4 years, when the one remaining nuclear treaty between the 2 nations, known as New START, expires. The treaty limits both sides to 1,550 deployed strategic weapons, down from tens of 1000’s on the peak of the Cold War. But that doesn’t embrace smaller, tactical weapons designed for battlefield use, a main fear within the present disaster. Just as Mr. Putin claimed final week that the U.S. had designs to place such weapons on Ukrainian territory — certainly one of his many justifications for the invasion — American officers concern that Mr. Putin’s subsequent transfer is to place them in Ukraine, if he succeeds in seizing the nation, and in Belarus.

Until final week, the 2 nations had been assembly often to debate new arms-control regimes, together with a revival of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which President Trump deserted in 2019. But the U.S. stated final week that it was suspending these talks.

The quick concern is that a heightened alert degree, by design, loosens the safeguards on nuclear weapons, making it extra doable that they might be used, by chance or design.

In current years, Russia has adopted a doctrine that lowers the edge for utilizing nuclear arms, and for making public threats of unleashing their powers in lethal atomic strikes.

“It’s what he does,” Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project on the Federation of American Scientists, a international coverage suppose tank in Washington, stated in an interview. “It’s verbal saber-rattling. We’ll see where he goes with it. This war is four days old and he’s already made nuclear threats twice.”

Mr. Kristensen famous that in 2014, when Mr. Putin annexed Crimea, the peninsular a part of southern Ukraine that juts into the Black Sea, the Russian president additionally raised the chance that his forces would possibly flip to atomic weapons. He recalled that when Mr. Putin was requested how he would react to retaliatory sanctions by the West, he “said he was willing to put his nuclear forces on alert.”

Mr. Putin’s announcement on Sunday got here hours after Europe and the United States introduced new sanctions, together with banning some Russian banks from utilizing the SWIFT monetary messaging system, which settles worldwide accounts, and crippling the Russian central financial institution’s skill to stabilize a falling ruble.

Matthew Kroenig, a professor of presidency and international service at Georgetown University who makes a speciality of atomic technique, stated historical past bristled with instances during which nuclear powers had threatened to unleash their arsenals on each other. He pointed to the Berlin disaster of the late Nineteen Fifties, the Cuban missile disaster of 1962, a border warfare between the Soviet Union and China in 1969, the Arab-Israeli warfare of 1973, and a warfare between India and Pakistan in 1999.

He additionally famous that Mr. Trump had leveled related threats towards Kim Jong-un, the North Korean chief, after his armed forces performed a collection of long-range missile checks. In his first yr in workplace, 2017, Mr. Trump threatened “fire and fury like the world has never seen.”

Mr. Putin’s outburst reminded many nuclear specialists of certainly one of Mr. Trump’s tweets, during which he famous: “North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the ‘Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.’ Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!”

Mr. Trump later insisted the menace was calculated, and that it had introduced Mr. Kim to the negotiating desk for a collection of three high-profile conferences between the 2 leaders. But the talks collapsed, and Mr. Kim’s nuclear stockpile is now considerably bigger, by most unclassified estimates, than it was earlier than Mr. Trump issued the menace.

Dr. Kroenig famous that “nuclear-armed states can’t fight nuclear wars because it would risk their extinction, but they can and do threaten it,” he stated on Sunday. “They play games of nuclear chicken, of raising the risk of war in hopes that the other side will back down and say, “Geez, this isn’t worth fighting a nuclear war over.’”

Mr. Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists stated the threats might be empty except matched with proof that nuclear weapons are being faraway from storage and readied for motion.

“Unless we see that kind of thing,” Mr. Kristensen stated, “it’s rhetoric — it’s madman brinkmanship.”