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Putin Visits Belarus, Stirring New Concern on Future of Ukraine War

Green Hearts by Green Hearts
December 19, 2022
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Putin Visits Belarus, Stirring New Concern on Future of Ukraine War
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President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia made a uncommon go to to Belarus on Monday to strengthen his bond with the nation’s president and his closest regional ally, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, a fellow strongman who has been beneath rising strain from Moscow to supply extra assist for the struggle in Ukraine.

Appearing collectively at a palace in Minsk after their talks, Mr. Putin and Mr. Lukashenko spoke about the necessity to stand up to Western financial strain. Mr. Putin mentioned the 2 had additionally mentioned the formation of a “unified defense space,” with out describing what that might entail, and had agreed to proceed joint navy workout routines.

Mr. Putin’s go to happened as Russia continued its nighttime bombardment marketing campaign in opposition to Ukraine’s energy crops and different essential infrastructure, deepening the nation’s distress. And the journey appeared sure to escalate issues in Kyiv concerning the chance of a contemporary floor offensive that might use Belarus as a launching pad.

Ukraine has repeatedly warned in current days that Russian forces might be getting ready a brand new assault from Belarus aimed toward making an attempt as soon as once more to grab Kyiv, solely about 55 miles from the Belarusian border, or at disrupting the move of Western arms and help into Ukraine from Poland.

Defense ministers from Russia and Belarus signed an unspecified settlement this month to strengthen navy ties, and Belarus mentioned final week that it was checking the fight readiness of its troops. The final time it did that was simply days earlier than Russia invaded Ukraine from its territory.

Mr. Putin continues to make use of Belarus to coach and provide his battered forces in Ukraine.

Mr. Lukashenko mentioned that Russia was additionally serving to Belarus prepare its navy pilots to fly planes with particular payloads, with out elaborating. He didn’t point out the likelihood of sending Belarusian forces into Ukraine, a step he has thus far resisted.

Mr. Putin and Mr. Lukashenko have met at the least six occasions for the reason that struggle started. Most of these conferences happened in Russia. This was Mr. Putin’s first journey to Belarus since 2019, in keeping with Russian state media, and Mr. Lukashenko was ready on the tarmac to greet him with a hug.

In a sarcastic comment that appeared to handle the 2 nations’ worldwide isolation 10 months into the struggle, Mr. Lukashenko known as himself and Mr. Putin “both co-aggressors — the most harmful, toxic people on the planet.”

Mr. Lukashenko has been virtually wholly reliant on Mr. Putin for the reason that Russian chief helped crush road protests that erupted in Belarus in August 2020, after Mr. Lukashenko declared an unbelievable landslide victory in a contested election. He relies upon on Russia for monetary, gasoline and safety help to keep up his 28-year grip on energy. On Monday, the 2 presidents reached a deal on the value of backed Russian gasoline deliveries to Belarus, additional bolstering Mr. Lukashenko.

“Are we able to defend our independence and sovereignty without Russia?” Mr. Lukashenko mentioned. “No, we are not.”

As the talks started, Russia had simply completed finishing up a wave of predawn assaults with Iranian-made drones on Kyiv and different Ukrainian cities, Ukrainian officers mentioned, persevering with a sample of nighttime strikes that Moscow has adopted to attempt to evade Ukrainian air defenses.

Most of the exploding drones focused energy crops and different vital infrastructure in Kyiv, the place at the least 4 loud explosions have been heard. The metropolis authorities issued warnings for residents to take shelter.

The Ukrainian Air Force mentioned that 30 of at the least 35 of the drones have been destroyed earlier than they reached their targets throughout Ukraine.

Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, mentioned that important infrastructure had been hit and that energy and warmth had been knocked out in some neighborhoods. In the area across the capital, three folks have been wounded and 9 homes have been broken, the police mentioned in an announcement.

Ukraine’s nationwide nuclear energy firm, Energoatom, mentioned one of the Iranian drones had additionally flown over the Southern Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant shortly after midnight on Monday, posing a danger to the location.

“This is an absolutely unacceptable violation of nuclear and radiation safety,” the corporate mentioned in an announcement.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine mentioned the assaults had come from a cargo of Shahed drones that he mentioned Iran had not too long ago delivered to Russia. He cited the weapons in an tackle to European leaders gathered in Latvia, urging them to supply extra assist for Ukraine’s air defenses.

During the day, Ukrainians can use small arms to shoot down drones, mentioned Yurii Ihnat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force. But within the darkness, he mentioned, Ukraine wants costly and restricted missile programs that may monitor drones by radar.

Some navy analysts have mentioned {that a} flurry of navy exercise in Belarus, together with the arrival of 1000’s of Russian troops ostensibly for coaching, might be half of an elaborate ruse aimed toward forcing Ukraine to divert troops to the north from energetic fronts within the east and south of the nation.

Konrad Muzyka, an unbiased protection analyst, mentioned open-source intelligence means that Russia has 10,000 to fifteen,000 troopers engaged in coaching actions in Belarus, though that could be a small fraction of the quantity that they had once they started the full-scale invasion.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based analysis group, mentioned in a report printed on Friday {that a} new Russian thrust into Ukraine was unlikely as “there are still no indicators that Russian forces are forming a strike force in Belarus.”

Still, Mr. Putin’s assembly with Mr. Lukashenko, in keeping with the institute “will reinforce the Russian information operation designed to convince Ukrainians and Westerners that Russia may attack Ukraine from Belarus.”

The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, dismissed hypothesis that Belarus may grow to be extra instantly concerned within the struggle, telling reporters on Monday that such discuss was based mostly on “totally stupid, groundless fabrications.”

Mr. Peskov equally dismissed warnings from the United States firstly of the 12 months that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine, insisting that Moscow had despatched troops to Belarus just for coaching workout routines.

Marc Santora, Andrew Higgins and Maria Varenikova contributed reporting.

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