STU ELLIS: A little juggling music, please | Agriculture


Farmers are juggling a variety of balls which are at present within the air.

Fertilizer costs have doubled for some and tripled for others. China is backing off importing U.S. grain. Crop safety chemical compounds could also be in restricted provide subsequent spring and summer season, with costs that could possibly be outlandish. Repair elements are unavailable. And South American opponents in corn and soybean manufacturing are making ready for a report crop.

And the balls are all headed down and have to be caught, which suggests preparations are imminent for the 2022 corn and soybean crop. So, what makes an excellent plan for corn and soybean acreage that doesn’t enable any of the balls to drop?

Many, no most, projections for spring planting count on farmers to scale back their corn acreage due to the excessive value of nitrogen and different fertilizers. Some market analysts have puzzled if even sufficient corn can be planted to provide the demand, domestically and likewise for export prospects. Some have advised corn acreage would possibly slip under the 90 million acre mark, greater than 3 million lower than what was planted in 2021.

University of Illinois agricultural economist Scott Irwin is shaking his head. Looking on the benefit, minimal because it at present is, that corn costs have over soybean costs when evaluating fall 2022 futures contracts, Irwin is projecting a 96 million acre corn crop to be planted within the spring. Acknowledging the uncertainties and all of the issues that may change, he says regardless of excessive fertilizer prices for corn, they’re just like soybeans.

His contrarian forecast is for elevated corn acres in 2022 and fewer soybean acres than the 87 million planted final spring, with a possible slippage to 85.5 million.

“The data leads us to look for an increase in corn acres (in 2022), which is different than what the market seems to be expecting,” Irwin says. U of I fashions recommend complete U.S. crop acres — about 70 % of that are in corn, soybeans and wheat — might enhance from 319 million this yr to 326.5 million subsequent season.

Since Irwin introduced wheat into the dialogue, Purdue ag economist David Widmar suggests utilizing wheat acreage to find out corn and soybean acreage.

Widmar says if wheat acreage for 2022 declines, meaning extra corn and soybeans are being planted. If farmers planted extra wheat acreage this fall, meaning much less corn and soybeans might be planted subsequent spring.

Wheat acreage has been on a rip and a tear downward for the previous 30 years, however which will have rotated this fall with a close to doubling of winter wheat costs.

And leaning in Irwin’s route, Widmar says, “It’s entirely possible that changes in wheat, cotton, or prevented plant acreage could be a bigger factor in the allocation of corn and soybeans than fertilizer prices. This isn’t to understate the challenges surrounding fertilizer prices but to point out other factors, such as winter wheat acres, which could be at risk of being overlooked.”

The first ball could have hit the ground on the juggler’s ft.

Arthur group affords alternative to share concepts, options.

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Stu Ellis is an observer of the Central Illinois agriculture scene. In addition to his weekly column, you possibly can view his “From The Farm” and “Harvest Heritage” reviews on WCIA 3 News.