Swine herd shrinkage could extend into next year | Agriculture


The U.S. swine herd continued to rebound from a three-year low, however it could nonetheless be awhile for a full return to regular measurement, in response to USDA’s quarterly hogs and pigs stock report launched Sept. 24.

The stock of all hogs and pigs as of Sept. 1 got here in at 75.4 million head. That’s down 4% from final year, however up 1% from the earlier quarter. It’s additionally up greater than 2% from the March report, which discovered the fewest pigs since June 2018.

However, low farrowing numbers through the quarter could point out the smaller herd would possibly persist into 2022, DTN Analyst Rick Kment mentioned.

“Farrowing intentions in September through November, and December through May are expected at 96% of year-ago levels,” he mentioned. “It is not until next spring that farrowing intentions are expected to inch higher. But, even then, it appears that limited expansion is likely to be seen at this point.”

Illinois got here in fourth amongst pig-producing states, with 5.5 million head, trailing Iowa, Minnesota and North Carolina. Illinois’ common litter measurement of 10.9 pigs is an enchancment from each the earlier quarter and final year however beneath the nationwide common of 11.1.

Cattle on feed stock drops

The Ag Department mentioned beef stock as of Sept. 1 dropped 1% from final year, however the quantity nonetheless represents the second-highest whole for the month since month-to-month cattle on feed reporting started in 1996.

The 11.2 million head was 1% greater than Aug. 1, indicating that seasonal lows in on-feed numbers have been met, Kment mentioned.

”The enhance in on-feed numbers in comparison with expectations and the truth that whole numbers solely observe pandemic-year ranges is anticipated to hold a bearish tone to the stay cattle advanced early next week when merchants get an opportunity to commerce the info,” he added.

Cattle positioned on feed in August got here in at 2.1 million head, 2% greater than final year and a 21% bounce from July.

This story was distributed via a cooperative venture between Illinois Farm Bureau and the Illinois Press Association. For extra meals and farming information, go to