BlogClimate & WeatherClimate changelocal weather
23 February 2022
To handle the affect that local weather change could have on agricultural productiveness, it’s a must to measure it. With this in thoughts, Gro Intelligence is constructing out the Gro Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture, a dashboard-like interface that lets customers create customized visualizations of the impact that local weather change – and the extra excessive climate volatility it brings – is having, and will proceed to have, on rising situations wherever on the planet.
Our Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture, which provides customers a view into any crop or any location’s short-term climate scenario and long-term local weather outlook, can generate crop and location-specific weighted analyses in a matter of seconds.
Users can view knowledge on the nation, state, province, district and county stage. And as a result of our software makes use of actual time and historic knowledge to provide location-specific soil moisture, precipitation, temperature, vegetative well being, and different climate and long-term indicators as inputs, the Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture can assist in each acreage and manufacturing forecasts for an upcoming season.
Separating the Wheat from the Chaff
Climate change is elevating temperatures, altering rainfall, drought, and flood patterns, and altering the geographical distribution of pests and illness. It can be an element that’s fueling the present wheat provide scarcity and making future wheat manufacturing extra unpredictable.
To mitigate this ongoing uncertainty, farmers and market members can use the local weather indicators inside the Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture, to watch short-term climate variables within the context of long-term local weather change traits.
Last yr’s disastrous drought within the US wheat belt underscores how local weather intelligence might help farmers and different market members mitigate dangers whereas figuring out alternatives early.
In March 2021, earlier than the US spring wheat season started, Gro began warning that world provides of spring wheat could possibly be severely curtailed.
Throughout the US spring wheat rising season, the GCI Drought Index, the Climate Risk Navigator’s key drought indicator, began displaying how scorching and dry climate throughout the US’ northern Plains was zapping yield potential. The affect on crop situations from the rising drought ranges could possibly be seen within the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) weighted by spring wheat space.
Typically, NDVI rises in May and June, peaking in mid to late July, akin to the important thing rising interval. But final yr, by the third week of June, NDVI was at its lowest stage since 2000. Similarly, the day by day soil moisture measure hit document lows across the identical time and stayed at document lows into August.
Also, in some wheat-growing states, notably in Montana, final summer time’s excessive drought created perfect situations for grasshopper infestations that additional chipped away at spring wheat yields. Spring wheat makes up about one-third of whole US wheat manufacturing.
By September 2021, the US spring wheat manufacturing was on a path to its lowest manufacturing stage because the late Eighties and an unusually heavy infestation of fall armyworms in US winter wheat rising areas was threatening to push growers’ pesticide prices larger.
At the tip of 2021, the Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture, weighted to wheat, was displaying low evapotranspiration/potential evapotranspiration (ET/PET) ratio, indicating a scarcity of water for the crop.
This yr the US onerous pink winter wheat (HRW) crop, which was planted final fall and is at present in its dormant stage, obtained off to a weak begin due to dry situations in Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Texas and Oklahoma. Since the start of the yr, the GCI Drought Index has crept steadily larger so the crop could possibly be in a tough place when it emerges from dormancy in early April. April and May are HRW’s key rising months. Sufficient rainfall at the moment can nonetheless make a very good crop, however above common yield is very unlikely.
Despite a rise in HRW planted acreage, HRW manufacturing is anticipated to say no once more this yr. Dry situations are additionally casting a shadow over the upcoming spring wheat planting season, as farmers will wish to see soil moisture enhance earlier than planting their crop.
The Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture helps Gro customers consider and evaluate crop rising situations and crop well being wherever on the planet. Its world local weather indicators (GCIs) use soil moisture, precipitation, temperature, vegetative well being, and different climate and long-term local weather metrics as inputs.
Contact Gro’s Sales workforce to schedule a demo of the Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture.